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Let’s bank the Muslim way?
Are Islamic bonds or sukuks now dead and buried?
The enormous bad publicity surrounding Nakheel’s $3.5 billion sukuk or Islamic bond repayment this month has exposed these debt instruments as nothing more than unsecured commercial bonds, with no recourse to underlying assets in the event of a default.
There is, of course, an irony in that Nakheel actually repaid its sukuk in full and on time thanks to the last minute intervention of the Abu Dhabi Government which dropped the Dubai Government a $10 billion lifeline.
Bond replaces sukuk
Actually it was a $10 billion conventional bond with interest of four per cent payable over five years. Abu Dhabi did not want another Islamic bond. Traditional bond finance is good enough for the richest city in the Gulf.
This does make it very easy to understand the rights and obligations of the parties. Sukuk come in a confusing number of varieties dressed up in an exotic language only understood by Islamic scholars and they seldom agreed on anything (see the ‘Diminishing musharakah’ above).
Yet in the Oil Boom of the 2000s such was the rush to invest in the Gulf States that nobody worried too much about the small print or the niceties of sukuk. Western bankers were assured that sukuk are just bonds under another name. They took the word of the sellers and ignored any protests from their lawyers.
After the Nakheel bond debacle a great many more questions will be asked about sukuks by both local and international lenders. For anybody trying to actually borrow money they will likely be more of a curse than a blessing, and a reversion back to more conventional financial instruments is clearly going to follow.
There will be exceptions to this rule. Saudi Arabia is the kingdom of the sukuk where all banks are Islamic, and not paying interest is highly profitable when your customers accept it, although the rental payments on sukuk should in theory amount to the same thing.
Financial innovation
Otherwise, it is perfectly normal after a boom period and what might be described as ‘financial innovation’ for there to be a swing back to more conservative banking practices. Lenders will be very particular in their due diligence on sukuk.
Confusingly and very significantly sukuk are asset-based but not asset-backed, so unlike a mortgage-backed security, for example, investors have no security over the asset if the issuer gets into financial difficulties and can not pay up.
No doubt sukuk will continue as a part of Islamic finance but their role in larger scale financing may now be sharply reduced.
Link: http://arabianmoney.net/2009/12/22/are-islamic-bonds-now-dead-and-buried/
Dubai Crisis: Islamic Bonds the Problem? Before and After the Bailout
Professor of Islamic Economics and Finance -( INCEIF ) Malaysia
The government of Abu Dhabi and the UAE Central Bank stepped in with a $10 billion bailout offer for the state-run Dubai World, which has recently been in debt.
Out of the allocated amount, $4.1 billion is meant to take care of the World's immediate debt obligations comprising Shari'ah-compliant bonds (sukuk) of the Nakheel, the property development arm of the company, which was due on December 14, the announcement date.
The company announced to meet its obligation within the next 14 days. The remaining $5.9 billion of the bailout will help meet the obligations to trade creditors and contractors of the Dubai World.
Though it was not an unexpected step, many, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), hailed the UAE move to address the crisis.
Dubai World had suddenly asked for time from its creditors until the end of May 2010 to repay their loans of about $59 billion.
The announcement caused a quiver in global financial markets. The reason in part was a failure to distinguish between delay and default.
The Bailout
| The debacle started with Dubai's booming real estate industry going bust at the start of 2008. |
The bailout announcement came in time. It has calmed the nerves, reassuring investors, financial and trade creditors, employees, and common people that the government will always act to uphold the market principles and globally acceptable business practices.
Stock markets have since turned their tails up. The US dollar looked up against the Yen; the Euro rode on the back of both.The yen fell sharply against other currencies on the news, and the dollar shot up to 88.90 yen and the euro also jumped to 130.43 yen. Asian credit default swaps tightened after the news, and risk appetite got boosted.
When Dubai World declared postponing payments on $26 billion in debt, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 155 points, or 1.5 percent, European stocks dropped, and oil prices plunged.
Dubai economy was initially raised on petrodollars, but the fast-dwindling reserves of the Emirate helped it to diversify its economy.
The Emirate (Dubai) decided to develop service and tourism sectors, and it has positioned itself as an international finance, trading, and sports center.
High-rise buildings, grand hotels, and luxury resorts soon dotted the land all around.
Property prices were at a full gallop until the close of 2006. Then the tide of global crisis has also reached this tiny outpost.
The debacle started with Dubai's booming real estate industry going bust at the start of 2008.
In an exuberant market, competition created excess supply, property prices crashed — the average fall being around 40 percent of their value in 2009 alone, takers are thinning, and profit margins are vanishing.
The abrupt declaration on November 26 by Dubai government asking the creditors to reschedule repayment made the financial world panic, and shares went tumbling across the world.
The reaction was sharper in the West as boom Dubai was heavily financed by foreign funds, especially from the European banks like the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Standard Chartered.Four British banks( HSBC, Lloyds, RBS, and Standard Chartered) are said to have exposure of $5bn to Dubai World.
Developing countries did not express much concern. India feared the unemployment that the crisis could cause to its workers in Dubai, but the overall feel was that mountain was being made out of molehill.
The Rupee amount involved was small, and the exposure of the Indian banking system to Dubai was limited.
Sukuk's Security
| Dubai was in part a victim of global meltdown and was in part overtaken by unguarded optimism and mismanagement. |
One consequence is that experts tend to tell about whatever adversity they find in sukuk. Dubai crisis has been no exception. Most comments, including some coming from the more sober academic world, contained disproportionate voicing of alarm and warning on the role of the Islamic bonds in Dubai turmoil.
The reason why sukuk attracted in the crisis the attention of the market was that their payment due on December 14 was the center of time-resetting negotiations; Islamic bonds, so to say, triggered the crisis.
The government announcement of its intention to enforce payment rescheduling immediately led both Moody's and Standard services to heavily downgrade the bonds — let alone sukuk — of various government-related entities in Dubai.
A more realistic approach could not have missed the point that the amount due was no more than 6 to 7 percent of the total money involved, and failure has not yet taken place.
Rating agencies could have shown little restraint in their decisions. They wield enormous power in the global bond markets, and they can literally force any government regarding debt issues.
There are increasing murmurs as to why these agencies are allowed to continue rating debt issues.
As bond issuers themselves have to pay for the evaluation exercise, there candidly is scope for the ratings moving in tandem with the payments.
It is not very clear what rules of conduct these agencies follow, who design these rules, and who oversees their observance. There is presumably a case for setting up regulatory frameworks for the rating agencies even for establishing separate ones for Islamic bonds.
Important Aspecsts
| Sukuk was not so much the issue in Dubai crisis as some have tried to make it. |
The company ultimately went bankrupt, extending the US subprime crisis to the Emirate.
The Washington DC and Abu Dhabi connection has pressured Dubai to join the "international community" in taking a tougher stance against Iran,which is one of the main trade partners of the Emirate.
Dubai has also decided to enact an insolvency law on the US-British model to provide protection to local companies, like the World, from its creditors.
Abu Dhabi may also be looking for some concessions from Dubai in return for its bailout. It may, for instance, seek concessions on trade with Iran and on the future of the Emirates Airline.
Sukuk was not so much the issue in Dubai crisis as some have tried to make it. Sukuk market remained calm and unaffected across countries, including the leading market of Malaysia. Dubai was in part a victim of global meltdown and was in part overtaken by unguarded optimism and mismanagement.
The crisis has compromised Dubai's reputation as an economic power house in the region it may find difficult to retrieve. It still faces the daunting task of restructuring the remaining $22 billion of Dubai World's debts.
Important the issue is what is going to be the fate of Dubai's huge investments sunk in high-value property mostly in anticipation of foreign demand, especially from the West.
The future is quite uncertain, if not bleak. The Emirate must proceed with caution.
Link: http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1260258086411&pagename=Zone-English-Muslim_Affairs%2FMAELayout
Dubai 'crisis over; emirates united'
The economic crisis in Dubai is over, the United Arab Emirates foreign minister Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed al-Nahayan said on Thursday. The $10 billion aid package this week from Abu Dhabi to Dubai had proved the unity of the UAE, he added.
Speaking to Reuters during a visit to the Israeli-occupied West Bank, he said the UAE government was 'committed to dealing with the effects of the global crisis' for all UAE members. 'The economic crisis in Dubai is over,' he said.
The lifeline to fellow-member Dubai 'is proof that the UAE is united politically and economically', Sheikh Abdullad added. 'It is also proof that UAE remains committed towards local government to deal with effects of the global economic crisis.
'I believe the (global) crisis will be behind us once the United States recovers, and we believe the US is recovering, which will reflect on other countries.'
Dubai World rocked global markets on November 25 when it asked creditors for a standstill in debt mainly linked to its two property firms, Nakheel and Limitless World.
Abu Dhabi came to the rescue of Dubai on Dec. 14, several days after state-owned conglomerate Dubai World asked creditors for a delay on payments of debts totalling some $26 billion.
Link: http://www.tradearabia.com/news/newsdetails.asp?Sn=BANK&artid=171994
Dubai World's debt manageable: experts
HSBC's exposure, according to BIS data, stood at $17 billion while Standard Chartered Bank's claim is expected to be around $12.3 billion to Dubai World — a minuscule amount compared to their global businesses.
Dubai World is currently in discussions with the banks to restructure about $26 billion of its debts.
HSBC's Middle East business represents only two per cent of its global operations.
Michael Geoghegan, HSBC Group CEO, said in a recent statement, "Although our business on the ground in the Middle East represents only 2 per cent of the group's balance sheet, it's an important and high-potential part of HSBC's international business mix and a region we are completely committed to.
"I am confident that the leadership of Dubai and the UAE will overcome any short-term issues they face, which appear to have been somewhat sensationalised, and continue to lay the foundations for sustainable growth."
Interest in the exposure of British banks to UAE debt has been sparked by a request by Dubai World for a ‘standstill' on the repayment of $3.52 billion sukuk by nearly six months to May 30, 2010, while the company is restructured to ensure its future commercial success.
Dubai World, which is seeking to restructure $26 billion in debt, is preparing to meet its creditors this week once they have nominated a negotiator.
Better position
Analysts point out that at such levels, the global banks' exposures are easily manageable.
"The standstill period for negotiating the debt and restructuring of Dubai World and Nakheel could potentially leave the Dubai government in a better position to support its other government-related companies," John Tofarides, banking analyst at Moody's in Dubai, said earlier.
A strategy note by HC Securities and Investment said the global banks' exposures are "a drop in the ocean compared to the toxic assets wiped out during the global crisis".
"When liquidity was tight, the risk of default was high. However, with lots of liquidity in the market and a greater acceptance of the market to take risk, especially when loans can be secured against tangible assets, we find it very unlikely that the bond holders will vote to force a company into liquidation."
Debt holders will pocket fees for breach of covenants and agree to refinance on better terms for borrowers rather than engage in a lawsuit and receive assets that are worth less, it said.
Link: http://gulfnews.com/business/banking/dubai-world-s-debt-manageable-experts-1.547198
Qatar Islamic has $15m exposure to Dubai World
"The financial impact currently will affect the negative investment fair value reserve," it said. "QIB will keep observing the situation and its financial consequences which will be disclosed accordingly." ($1=3.638 Qatari Riyals)
Link: http://www.arabianbusiness.com/575170-qatar-islamic-has-15m-exposure-to-dubai-world
Oman banks have US$77m exposure to Dubai World
Government-owned Dubai World requested a payment standstill on November 25 for US$3.52 billion worth of Islamic bonds maturing this month as it looks to restructure US$26 billion worth of debt.
Bank Muscat, Oman's largest lender by market value, said it had US$50 million in exposure to a syndicated loan from the group, the biggest of three exposures, which was still fairly limited compared to other regional and international banks
Bank Muscat shares closed 6.2 per cent down at 0.77 rials a share, having traded as low as 0.75 riyals yesterday.
Both Bank Muscat and Bank Sohar said their loans were still being serviced.
National Bank of Oman, the country's third largest bank fell 5 per cent after it said it had US$22.6 million of exposure, while the fifth largest bank. Bank Dhofar, Oman's second largest bank, jumped 10 per cent on thin volume, after it said it had no exposure.
Oman International Bank and Ahli Bank also said they had no exposure.
Oman's central bank governor said yesterday there was no need to require local banks to book provisions for exposure to Dubai World debt as their exposure was not related to loans under restructuring.
The US$77 million exposure announced by the country's top three banks early yesterday represented "about the total" exposure of the sultanate's banking system, Hamood Sangour al-Zadjali told Al Arabiya television.
"There will be no surprises..." he said.
The debt was not part of the US$26 billion debt the group was restructuring, he added.
Link: http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/omaex/Article/
Dubai debt crisis has limited impact on fund flows - EPFR
The Boston-based fund tracker said that investors did not completely run for safety after government-owned Dubai World requested a payment standstill on a maturing Islamic bond as it works out how to restructure $26 billion worth of debt.
Money market funds, the traditional safe-haven for cash, had a net outflow of $838 million, bringing its current outflow streak to eight weeks.
However, Middle East regional equity funds had net outflows for the sixth time in the past seven weeks with outflows hitting a 35-week high. Investors also pulled cash from Middle East and Africa regional equity funds, EPFR's statement said.
After the initial shock of the Dubai debt moratorium request, EPFR said investors looked to put cash into commodity and currency issues.
COMMODITY GAINS
Gold hit record highs during the reporting period and continues to do so while other precious and industrial metals gain ground as well.
EPFR-tracked commodity sector funds had net inflows of over $1 billion for the third straight week, with year-to-date inflows of $24 billion.That helped EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa), Latin America and the diversified global emerging markets equity fund groups to post inflows of $33 million, $34 million, and $687 million respectively.
"Daily flow numbers show some emerging markets funds groups regaining momentum towards the end of the week," said Cameron Brandt, senior global analyst at EPFR.
"Investors remain anxious to deploy money before the books close on 2009," he said.
Asia ex-Japan equity funds, however, had net outflows of $306 million.
"For this region, appreciating currencies raise questions about export competitiveness and increase the chances that governments will turn to capital controls," EPFR's statement said.
Dedicated BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) funds had inflows for the 12th consecutive week.
Telecom sector funds had their best week since the second quarter of 2007. Healthcare/biotechnology stock funds recorded their first three-week inflow streak since September 2008.
DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITYIn the developed markets, U.S. equity funds were said to have a neutral week with safe-haven flows into large-cap exchange traded funds canceled out by redemptions from small and mid-cap funds.
European equity funds took in, on a net basis, over $2 billion for the third time this year.
But EPFR's Brandt offered the following caveat: "In both of the previous occasions the flows were reversed the following week, so we are viewing these flows as a tactical move by a few ETFs rather than a significant shift in sentiment."
Japanese equity funds suffered an 11th straight week of outflows, this time $271 million.
FIXED INCOME
Even though risk taking has helped push stock indexes up sharply this year, bond fund inflows have also proven robust.
U.S. bond funds had net inflows over $1 billion for the 21st week in a row and global bond funds have year-to-date inflows just shy of $30 billion, EPFR said.
Emerging market bond funds had inflows of $229 million, only a third of their previously weekly average for the fourth quarter of 2009. EPFR said local currency funds in the category "accounted for over two-thirds of all inflows into this fund group as the search for dollar hedges continued."
(Reporting by Daniel Bases; Editing by Phil Berlowitz)
Link: http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-44454220091204?pageNumber=3&virtualBrandChannel=0